The U.S. solar industry might install 27% less capacity between 2026 and 2030 than projected before President Donald Trump’s tax law rolled back subsidies for renewable projects, according to a report released Monday.
Solar power is getting more expensive. Utility-scale solar costs rose 4%, residential costs increased 2%, and commercial system costs climbed 10% in the second quarter.
Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), which co-authored the report with research firm Wood Mackenzie, is upset the subsidies are down and costs are up.
“Instead of unleashing this American economic engine, the Trump administration is deliberately stifling investment, which is raising energy costs for families and businesses, and jeopardizing the reliability of our electric grid,” Hopper said.
The analysis said the reduction reflects the impact of recent federal policy changes, including the rollback of incentives that had supported renewable energy growth. The trade group’s findings highlight a shift away from the funding priorities advanced under former President Joe Biden’s climate initiatives.
By the Numbers
- Solar and storage accounted for 82% of new U.S. electricity capacity in the first half of 2025.
- Domestic solar module manufacturing capacity increased by 13 GW, reaching a total of 55 GW.
- More than three-quarters of solar capacity installed in 2025 has been in states carried by Trump, including Texas, Indiana, and Florida.
- Utility-scale solar costs rose 4%, residential costs increased 2%, and commercial system costs climbed 10% in the second quarter, attributed to tariffs, permitting, and other overhead expenses.
“There is considerable downside risk for the solar industry if the federal permitting environment creates more constraints for solar projects,” Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement. “The solar industry is already navigating dramatic policy changes as a result of HR1. Further uncertainty from federal policy actions is making the business environment for the solar industry incredibly challenging.”
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