Ukraine has intensified its campaign of drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting refineries in recent weeks and deepening fuel shortages across the country.
For two years, Ukraine has targeted Russian refineries and depots, but since early August the pace has quickened, with the country’s officials reporting more than a dozen strikes on refining and distribution sites over the past month, including Aug. 30 attacks on facilities in Krasnodar and Syzran in the Samara region, reports The Economist.
Both have been struck multiple times and supply fuel to Russian military units, according to Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces.
About 40% of Ukraine’s long-range strike missions this year have focused on refineries, while others have hit storage and pumping facilities.
Independent estimates suggest up to 20% of Russia’s refining capacity has been disabled, cutting more than 1 million barrels a day of output, mostly gasoline. Refineries that have been hit repeatedly have sustained lasting damage, especially to cracking units that are difficult to replace under Western sanctions.
The impact has been felt nationwide. Motorists face fuel shortages, long lines, and record prices. Wholesale gasoline prices have jumped 54% since January, prompting authorities to suspend exports and impose rationing in some regions.
Russia’s budget deficit reached $61.4 billion in the first seven months of the year, nearly 3% of annual GDP.
Analysts say the August strikes were larger and more sophisticated than earlier attacks. Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, a former Gazprom Neft executive, said Ukrainian drones now fly in greater numbers, navigate more effectively, and often overwhelm Russian air defenses.
Strikes have spanned an 800-kilometer arc from Ryazan, near Moscow, to Volgograd in the south.
The timing has added pressure, coinciding with peak summer demand and the harvest season. Vakulenko noted that “tens of millions of Russians live to the west of this arc,” where shortages have been acute. Reports of scarcity have also come from Russian-occupied Crimea and Vladivostok in the far east.
Ukraine’s expanded drone production has made the campaign possible. The FP-1 long-range “kamikaze” drone, introduced in May, now accounts for about 60% of strikes inside Russia. Produced at an estimated 100 units a day, it carries a 60- to 120-kilogram warhead with a range of up to 1,600 kilometers.
Despite a price of about $55,000, it is said to feature advanced guidance software that maintains accuracy under electronic jamming. Ukraine has also deployed heavier Lyutyi drones.
Vakulenko described the situation as “challenging but manageable” for Russia. But British strategist Sir Lawrence Freedman warned that continued refinery strikes could intensify economic and military pressure.
“By itself it will not be decisive, but in combination with a weakening economy and Ukrainian forces holding back Russian advances, it will add to the pressure on Putin,” he said.
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