Last week Noble Capital Markets announced it has initiated coverage on Newsmax (NYSE: NMAX) with an Outperform rating and a $23 price target, highlighting the conservative media company’s expanding influence in cable and digital news as well as a compelling multiyear monetization opportunity.
The $23 target represents a significant premium to Newsmax’s recent share price of about $14 and implies a market capitalization of roughly $3 billion, according to Noble’s Equity Research Analyst Michael Kupinski.
Noble’s analysts argue that the company’s loyal audience, favorable revenue trajectory, and underpriced affiliate fee agreements make it one of the more attractive growth stories in the media sector.
Founded in 1998 by CEO Christopher Ruddy, Newsmax began as a digital-first conservative news outlet before launching Newsmax TV in 2014.
Over the past decade, the company has transformed into a multiplatform media presence distributed across all major cable providers and streaming platforms, including Roku, YouTube TV and Amazon Fire TV.
Today, Newsmax ranks as the fourth most-watched cable news network in the U.S., trailing only Fox News, MSNBC and CNN.
This growth has been driven by consistent Nielsen ratings gains, particularly among viewers ages 35–64, a demographic prized by advertisers. According to Noble, Newsmax’s digital footprint further strengthens its reach, with over 16 million app downloads and nearly 20 million followers across social platforms.
One of the strongest elements of Noble’s bullish thesis is what it describes as Newsmax’s “under-monetized” subscriber base.
While peers such as Fox News command affiliate fees ranging from 40 cents to more than $2 per subscriber per month, Newsmax receives less than 10 cents per subscriber, according to analyst estimates.
“As carriage agreements with multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs) come up for renewal, Newsmax is in position to reprice these fees closer to market levels,” Noble wrote.
“Given the company’s top-four cable ranking, we expect significant revenue uplift, with much of the incremental economics falling directly to the bottom line.”
Noble projects a 44% increase in affiliate revenue in 2026, which, combined with steady advertising gains, is expected to swing the company into positive adjusted EBITDA of $9.7 million after years of losses.
Newsmax’s advertising revenue has also shown resilience amid broader industry headwinds. In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported 26% year-over-year advertising growth, pushing total quarterly revenue up 18.4% to $46.4 million.
Analysts attributed this performance to rising ratings across all parts of the day, including a 25% primetime surge in 2024.
With advertisers eager to reach Newsmax’s core demographic of politically engaged viewers, Noble expects ad revenue to remain a durable growth driver. For fiscal 2026, the firm forecasts 14.3% advertising growth alongside affiliate fee repricing gains.
Another factor behind Noble’s $23 price target is Newsmax’s balance sheet, which remains debt-free with nearly $200 million in cash and investments as of June 30, 2025.
This capital position, even after accounting for the company’s $67 million settlement with Dominion Voting Systems, provides ample flexibility to reinvest in content, expand digital offerings, and negotiate stronger carriage deals. The settlement is payable over three years and was resolved at a fraction of what Fox News paid in its 2023 settlement with Dominion.
Noble’s discounted cash flow model assumes that unlevered free cash flow will rise from about $8 million in 2026 to over $100 million by 2031. This trajectory supports a long-term intrinsic equity value of $3 billion, consistent with the firm’s $23 per share price target.
Despite growing competition from podcasts and digital-first outlets, cable news remains a lucrative market.
According to Pew Research, cable news revenue expanded at a 9% compound annual rate from 2006 to 2020, while Statista projects the global TV and video market will grow from $728 billion in 2025 to $846 billion by 2030.
Noble believes Newsmax is well positioned to capitalize on these trends, particularly through streaming expansion and digital monetization. The company’s free streaming FAST channel Newsmax2 (N2) has already seen ratings grow more than 25% year over year.
The analysts argue that Newsmax’s strong brand recognition, diversified revenue streams, and underpriced affiliate agreements create “one of the more compelling investment opportunities in the media sector.”
With its conservative positioning, loyal audience base, and broad distribution footprint, Newsmax has established itself as a significant player in U.S. cable news.
Noble Capital’s $23 price target reflects confidence in the company’s ability to unlock meaningful revenue from affiliate fee repricing, sustain advertising momentum, and long-term free cash flow growth.
As Noble summarized in its coverage initiation: “We believe audience loyalty, affiliate repricing, and strong free cash flow conversion are the key drivers of long-term shareholder value.”
At a current price near $14 per share, Noble sees Newsmax as offering substantial upside potential for investors willing to look beyond near-term volatility.
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