It’s a Mistake to Equate Momentary Market Buzz with Long-Term Stability
I welcome all the flak I’m taking from MAGA about the Trump tariffs and any early signs of success. No one wants to see the president succeed more than I do; I’ve supported him since 2015.
It’s also important for us all to slow our roll.
President Trump’s return to the White House in January came with bold promises — and even bolder policies.
Chief among them: a renewed commitment to the America First economic doctrine, with tariffs playing a central role.
Critics scoffed.
Economists panicked.
The media rushed to rehash outdated narratives about ” trade wars” and economic doomsday scenarios.
In all honesty, those were legitimate concerns in many cases.
I have been consistent in my belief that tariffs should be used as tools, not weapons.
But here we are, barely six months in, and the Dow has climbed nearly 700 points. U.S. manufacturing sentiment has ticked upward.
Domestic steel and aluminum producers are expanding capacity.
For once, “Made in America” isn’t just a slogan — it’s a direction.
So yes, there are some encouraging signs.
But before we start popping champagne and handing out medals, we should take a breath and put the moment into context.
Let’s start with the stock market.
A 700-point rise in the Dow is no small feat, especially in an environment filled with geopolitical uncertainty and a deeply fractured labor market.
But let’s also be honest: during Joe Biden’s four years in office, the Dow rose more than 12,000 points.
That averages roughly 1,500 points every six months.
So, Am I comparing apples to apples?
Not entirely.
But those who trumpet the 700-point gain under Trump as proof of sweeping economic success aren’t doing that either.
There’s a dangerous tendency in politics and media to cherry-pick numbers to confirm pre-existing beliefs.
A data point here, a snapshot there, and suddenly we’re either in a golden age or on the brink of collapse — depending on which political party you support.
I’m not interested in that kind of narrative building.
I didn’t support Joe Biden, and I certainly didn’t support the reckless spending, regulatory overreach, or inflationary policies his administration ushered in.
But I’m also not in the business of ignoring reality just because it’s inconvenient.
Addiction to hope may be free, but it has no utility.
The reality is, while tariffs are working as a strategic tool, the broader economic picture remains uncertain. Inflation currently sits at 2.7% — not catastrophic by any means.
But it was 2.3% in April and 2.4% in May.
That’s not the direction you want to see if you’re hoping for long-term price stability.
Is it a blip or a trend?
Time will tell.
But let’s not pretend that inflation is yesterday’s problem just because the numbers have cooled off a bit.
I recently spoke with a successful international businessman who supports President Trump and applauds the administration’s efforts to level the playing field.
But he’s still sitting on the sidelines.
Why?
Because uncertainty is the enemy of investment.
He doesn’t yet know how tariffs will affect his cost structure in the long term.
He doesn’t yet know how rising labor costs — driven in part by the shrinking workforce as we rightly enforce immigration laws — will hit his bottom line.
He’s not alone.
There’s an old saying in business: hope is not a plan.
Even the most patriotic business owners can’t build a hiring plan or sign a five-year lease based on vibes.
They need predictability and as much certainty as they can muster.
And right now, the economy still feels too volatile to provide it.
Labor is a particularly overlooked piece of this puzzle.
With illegal immigrants rightly being deported, we’re seeing a tightening labor market.
That’s not a bad thing in principle — every nation must control its borders — but it comes with consequences.
A shrinking workforce means rising labor costs.
For many businesses, that rise is happening at the same time as tariffs begin increasing the cost of imported materials and components.
That’s a double squeeze.
It’s a manageable one — but not without risk.
Let me be crystal clear: I support the use of tariffs.
For far too long, the United States has played the sucker in global trade deals.
We exported jobs and imported dependency.
Trump’s strategy, both in his first term and now, is an attempt at a long-overdue correction.
I’ve just been loath to the use of tariffs as a cudgel.
The goal isn’t just to punish bad actors like China — it’s to rebuild American capacity and resilience. That takes time. It takes discipline.
And yes, it takes a willingness to endure short-term pain for long-term gain.
But tariffs alone aren’t the silver bullet.
They must be part of a broader pro-growth, pro-investment, pro-worker strategy.
That includes regulatory reform, targeted tax incentives, and serious labor market development. If we want companies to expand here rather than abroad, we must make it economically viable to do so.
So, to my fellow conservatives who are cheering the recent numbers: I get it.
It’s tempting to grab every uptick and run victory laps.
But I urge caution.
We’re still in the first inning of this new term.
Business leaders are still cautious.
Inflation still looms.
The labor market is still unstable.
Let’s not forget the hard lessons of the past four years just because the mood feels better.
But progress is not the same as victory. Let’s continue the work. Let’s refine the strategy. Let’s prepare for turbulence while building toward sustainability.
It’s important to stay focused, stay honest, and stay patient.
Jim Renacci is a former U.S. Congressman, businessman, and conservative leader dedicated to putting America first. Read More of his Reports — Here.
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